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Release date:2014-09-19
As one of the pillar industry of the national economy, the development of iron and steel industry by economic trends influence; in our country economy by investment critical moment to consumption type transition, the domestic steel market appeared more serious unrest, serious excess capacity, demand growth is top of downward arc, domestic steel prices hit new place 10 years; in August the domestic mainstream macroeconomic data continues downward, will continue to trend of the steel market bring freezing effect.
August macroeconomic data again "fall", "cold steel demand reduction
The Bureau of statistics released last week to the official economic data, in August this year, the scale of China's industrial added value increased by 6.9%, 2.1 percentage points lower than in July, a record low of 6 years ago; fixed asset investment growth in August was 16.5%, down 0.5 percentage points over the previous July, the downward trend continued for nearly two years; the CPI index in August rose 2%, below market expectations; PPI index down 1.2% year-on-year decline, enlarged; 8 months before the real estate data continue to decline in consumer demand for related industries formed clamp; other retail, electricity consumption, social financing scale and other indicators were lower than market expectations; manufacturing industry with the previous month released in early PMI/PPI in response index, China's investment slowdown, weak domestic demand, economic restructuring in the critical moment, adjust the structure of the turbulence can hardly be avoided, although the steady growth measures in support of the project, but Economic downward pressure on the economy is still large, continue to limit the release of the overall steel demand.
China's economy is the rapid growth of gradually to the speed, even at low speed is changing, the future stage, local instability even weak inevitable; but in the transition to adjust the structure, deepening reform to promote, the overall economic situation will remain stable. However, as the main field of steel consumption, the real estate industry of several mainstream data continue to drop not only has seriously restricted the release of line screw and other construction steel market demand; the real estate industry weaker to investment, production and consumption increase, other categories of steel consumption is also deeply affected. Another car industry was also the end of the high-speed growth has returned to normal levels, electrical appliances, machinery and other areas continue to face problems of the consumer downturn. Overall, steel demand is expected to transfer the economic data will continue to maintain the downturn phase, the "golden nine silver ten" of steel market is already worthy of the name.
Domestic steel prices continued to new lows, the early signs of stabilising the fear of being destroyed ""
After crash of August, steel prices in September half downward trend has slowed, although still under the constant innovation low; period of steel fell below 2800 gateway although encountered resistance, but it is not obvious; the spot market, the mainstream area line screw prices fell to a low of about 2800, hot rolling, plate a checkmate 3000 yuan mark trend, steel prices not the lowest, only lower intention is strong. More recently a thriving outgoing Xinjiang steel prices plummeted to the lowest, a lot earlier into Xinjiang gold steel, because of the serious oversupply and began to mass to inland transport, which will further impact the mainland steel city the fragile relationship between supply and demand; maybe you will force domestic emerging signs of stabilization in the steel market has once again been low-cost resources "ruin".
Under the generally weak economic environment, the possibility of a rebound in steel prices to stabilize is very low; Baosteel on October plate ex factory price slashed, feedback the order is not perfect, or guiding the current is still more than a profit of 100 yuan of hot-rolled plate market continued downward; and Shagang isometric steel prices price adjustment flat pretty city, to the market release positive signal, but the real estate downturn, railway investment more than half, the studio to change the construction speed is still insufficient to make up for gaps in the demand, so the mills very price can be effective remaining doubts.